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2008 U.S. Open
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 Perhaps the only thing more fun than watching a major golf championship unfold is arguing beforehand about who will win the tournament. Here's our list of 10 players we think have the best chance of winning on the South Course at Torrey Pines. 1. Tiger Woods Best U.S. Open finish: 1 (2000 at Pebble Beach, 2002 at Bethpage Black) Why he'll win: When it comes to Torrey Pines, Woods has no equal. He has six Buick Invitational titles, including the last four in a row, and he won the 1991 Junior World Golf Championship there. Woods knows what it takes to win a U.S. Open, with two in the bag, and it helps that one came at Bethpage, the only municipal course besides Torrey to host an Open and also one of the longest Open tracks ever. Why he won't win: His left knee. It's uncertain whether Woods will see any tournament action prior to the U.S. Open because of recent arthroscopic surgery. If he doesn't, he might have too much rust to challenge for his third Open title. Then again, if any golfer has proven he can find his game quickly after a long layoff, it's Woods. 2. Phil Mickelson Best U.S. Open finish: 2 (1999 at Pinehurst, 2002 at Bethpage Black, 2004 at Shinnecock Hills, 2006 at Winged Foot) Why he'll win: If it weren't for Woods, Mickelson could certainly lay claim to the best record of any professional at Torrey Pines. Mickelson's three Buick Invitational crowns are second only to Woods, and his knowledge of the course as a San Diego native might exceed Woods'. The three-time major champion has enjoyed another solid PGA Tour campaign in 2008, with a victory at Riviera and a top-five at Augusta. Why he won't win: The memory of his double bogey on the 72nd hole of the 2006 U.S. Open won't ever be forgotten, but will he get over that calamity enough to break through for his first Open? We'll see. Mickelson missed the cut at last year's U.S. Open at Oakmont, though an injured wrist he sustained while practicing out of Oakmont's rough didn't help. It would be a stunning disappointment if Mickelson missed the cut at Torrey, but the true test of his mettle will come if he's in contention during the final round. 3. Geoff Ogilvy Best U.S. Open finish: 1 (2006 at Winged Foot) Why he'll win: He's done it before, reaping the benefits of Mickelson's mistake at Winged Foot in 2006 to garner his first major championship title. Ogilvy won this year's WGC-CA Championship at Doral, ending Woods' PGA Tour winning streak and reaffirming the Aussie's status as one of the world's best. He hits the ball long, too, which will definitely give him more chances to attack pins on the South. Why he won't win: Since winning the Open, Ogilvy has been solid in majors, but not a consistent threat. He has a pair of top 10s at the PGA Championship, but Woods won both of those by comfortable margins. Ogilvy has the talent, but it remains to be seen if he has the fire to become one of the game's perennial superstars. 4. Adam Scott Best U.S. Open finish: T21 (2006 at Winged Foot) Why he'll win: Widely regarded as the world's best player without a major, Scott has the résumé to prove it. The 27-year-old has 14 worldwide wins, including the 2004 Players Championship and a pair of victories at the Qatar Masters (he shot a 61 in the final round to win there this year). His 2008 PGA Tour campaign has been buoyed by a dramatic playoff victory at the EDS Byron Nelson Championship. Why he won't win: He's still the best player without a major. The 27-year-old Aussie has one of the prettiest and most effective swings on Tour, but for whatever reason, he hasn't put it together in any of the big four: In 28 major starts, he has only four top 10s, and in seven U.S. Opens, he has missed five cuts and never finished inside the top 20. 5. Vijay Singh Best U.S. Open finish: T3 (1999 at Pinehurst) Why he'll win: Singh, 45, is still a threat to win majors. Though 2007 marked the first time in 10 years he failed to record a top-10 major finish, Singh has loomed large in '08, missing only one cut and recording four top fives. The three-time major champ has one of the best Open records of anyone who hasn't won it, with seven top 10s in 14 starts. Why he won't win: Singh always seems to be in contention when his putter's working, but his inconsistency with the flat stick could present problems on Torrey's tricky greens. 6. Padraig Harrington Best U.S. Open finish: 5 (2000 at Pebble Beach, 2006 at Winged Foot) Why he’ll win: Even before Harrington broke through for his first major victory at the 2007 British Open, he was heralded as one of the top international contenders at the U.S. Open. The Irishman’s steady game has generated four top-10 finishes at the Open this decade, including a fifth-place finish at Winged Foot in 2006. Why he won’t win: It’s been almost 40 years since a European has won the U.S. Open, with Englishman Tony Jacklin the last to accomplish the feat in 1970. And even with his British Open crown, Harrington hasn’t enjoyed the type of success on American soil that would make him an Open favorite. 7. Jim Furyk Best U.S. Open finish: 1 (2003 at Olympia Fields) Why he’ll win: Furyk knows how to play U.S. Open golf courses. He’s only missed one cut in 13 Open starts, and his 2003 triumph at Olympia Fields has been complemented by runner-up finishes each of the past two years. Why he won’t win: The South Course will play incredibly long, and while Furyk is capable of plodding his way around any type of track, he might not have the length to challenge for the crown. 8. Ernie Els Best U.S. Open finish: 1 (1994 at Oakmont, 1997 at Congressional) Why he’ll win: Els has had an eventful year, leaving longtime coach David Leadbetter for Butch Harmon and dealing with his son’s autism. Through it all, the two-time U.S. Open champ won the Honda Classic. It’s entirely possible the Harmon-influenced changes in Els’ game will take hold around the time of the Open. Why he won’t win: Changes are still changes, and Els might not have the confidence to contend at a U.S. Open venue. Though still comfortably in the top 10 of the world rankings, the 38-year-old South African hasn’t produced the kind of consistent results lately that make him the major contender he used to be. 9. Boo Weekley Best U.S. Open finish: T26 (2007 at Oakmont) Why he’ll win: What a story it would be if Weekley, the mild-mannered journeyman from Milton, Fla., won a U.S. Open. The 34-year-old has won back-to-back Verizon Heritage titles at difficult Harbour Town Golf Links, is among the Tour’s leaders in total driving, and has the type of easygoing personality that could be ideal for coping with the pressure of contending in a major. Why he won’t win: Weekley hasn’t missed a cut in four career majors, but experience in only one U.S. Open doesn’t leave much to draw from. 10. Sergio Garcia Best U.S. Open finish: T3 (2005 at Pinehurst No. 2) Why he’ll win: The 2008 Players champion, Garcia comes into the Open with momentum. He is always one of the Tour’s best ballstrikers, and he has proven he can execute miraculous shots under pressure (see: shot around tree at ’99 PGA Championship). Why he won’t win: Putting. Garcia is having a statistically horrible year on the greens, and as last year’s British Open showed, it’s hard for him to bear down on the greens for 72 holes. |
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